2013 Observations and Predictions — Kure Beach Real Estate Market Data

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly on Kure Beach Real Estate for 2013

I wrote about 6 months ago how Kure was going against the tide :) of the Wilmington real estate recovery.  So where does the market stand now and how dramatic is the situation?  Well if you look at these 2 graphs it’s not looking good:

 

When you look at the top quartile by itself it looks grim.   And when you look at the medians it looks dramatic as well, however you’re just talking about slight dip or 440s to 430s with a short term trend up.  The challenge with Kure Beach real estate data is that there are so few homes sold each month that one can easily jump to conclusions based on what homes HAPPENED TO SELL THAT MONTH.  If a large home sells that month it throws off the numbers big time and distorts the market.

 

My Experience & instincts showing Kure home for sale versus “market data”

As I was looking at a glance–a shallow quick look–at the market I was a bit uneasy or perplexed that the graphs did not match up with my experience of showing and negotiating contracts here every month.  Not to mention inventory is down significantly:

 

So what is the reality of our niche beach market with oceanfront homes and the most colorful neighborhoods you can find such as Seawatch.

 

 

Do the issue of this being such a small market one  has to really be careful to compare apples to apples–that is similar size homes to similar size homes and compare home values and trends that way.  See these 3 examples to get an accurate view of the market.

 

Apples to Apples (square ft to similar square feet) view of Kure market values

Prices for smaller homes came down in 2012 but stabilized and remained steady the whole year.  don’t think the prices will come down anymore. Possible 2-5% gain in 2013.  If they did drop it would be a pittance and couldn’t justify waiting to buy when interest rates are going up.

 

 

Prices for this size home are the same as May 2011.  That sale in Febuary 2012 was probably an ocean view home….

 

And finally the luxury home sales in the area.  The blue arrow shows stable prices for these larger homes.  If you differentiated ocean view or oceanfront from the “regular” homes of similar size the numbers would be even more consistent or identical or flat.

 

Predictions for 2013

Prices totally stabilized in 2012 and will be flat in 2013 or bump 2-4%.  Peace out.

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